Tax season creates hidden market shifts that can mislead investors. Refunds hit accounts, portfolios get rebalanced, and positions move to cover obligations — creating liquidity changes that make small-cap moves appear more meaningful than they actually are.
Our 2026 Market Flow Briefing reveals how tax-season liquidity affects market action, why current moves seem disconnected from fundamentals, and exposes one profitable setup emerging under these exact conditions.
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Strait of Hormuz Reopens — And Your Portfolio Just Got a Little Less Anxious
The U.S. and Iran just pulled off what most geopolitical watchers thought was impossible this quarter: a deal to halt military escalation and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The agreement, brokered through back-channel negotiations over the past six weeks, ends a standoff that had crude futures dancing around $95 a barrel and put a serious damper on global supply chains. Tanker traffic is expected to resume normal operations within 72 hours.
The implications are immediate and broad. Energy stocks that had been riding the tension premium are already pulling back in pre-market trading. Crude is down nearly 8% as traders price in the return of roughly 21 million barrels per day flowing freely through the strait. For those of us who've been watching shipping costs, insurance premiums, and the knock-on effects across manufacturing and logistics — this is the kind of headline that quietly adds a few points back to your annual return.
There's still plenty of skepticism about how long this holds. Iran's domestic politics are as volatile as ever, and the U.S. has conditioned parts of the deal on verification protocols that could unravel if either side decides to play games. But for now, the world's most critical oil chokepoint is open for business, and that's worth paying attention to.
🥃 Cole's Take: I've seen enough of these deals to know they're fragile, but I'm also old enough to know that when the Strait reopens, you don't fight it — you adjust. If you've been overweight energy as a hedge, now's the time to rebalance. Take some profit, let the rest ride, and remember that geopolitical risk premiums evaporate faster than they build.
Image via TheStreet
SpaceX IPO: A Reminder That Patient Money Makes Generational Wealth
SpaceX finally went public last month, and if you're just hearing about the opportunity now, you're already late — but that's exactly the lesson. The real fortunes in SpaceX weren't made by retail investors rushing into the IPO. They were made by the people who wrote checks in 2008, 2012, and 2015 when the company was still blowing up rockets on launchpads and Elon was sleeping on factory floors. Those early believers are now sitting on returns that make even the best hedge fund years look pedestrian.
The IPO gave retail a rare crack at a genuine moonshot, and plenty of people are celebrating double-digit gains since the listing. That's fine. But the investors who got truly wealthy were the ones who had access years ago — venture funds, family offices, and individuals with the connections and conviction to stay in through every setback. It's a reminder that the most asymmetric opportunities don't come with a ticker symbol and a Robinhood notification.
Now that SpaceX trades publicly, it's a different animal. It's a real company with real revenue, government contracts, and Starlink printing cash. There's still upside, maybe significant upside. But the 50x, 100x returns? Those belonged to the people who showed up early and stayed uncomfortable.
🥃 Cole's Take: If there's one lesson I've learned in 30 years, it's this: generational wealth is built in private markets, not public ones. By the time you and I get the invitation, the patient money has already been paid. That doesn't mean you skip SpaceX now — it means you start thinking about where the next one is.
Image via Fox Business
Barron Trump's Yerba Mate Play: Celebrity Branding Meets Florida Hustle
SOLLOS Yerba Mate just dropped its first product — a Pineapple + Coconut yerba mate drink with a distinctly Florida vibe — and the name attached is Barron Trump. The youngest Trump, now in his early twenties, is linked to the brand as it launches into a beverage market already crowded with energy drinks, functional hydration plays, and every influencer with a canning deal. The Florida angle is no accident: tropical flavor profiles, a nod to the state's lifestyle brand appeal, and presumably a distribution strategy that starts where the family has deep roots.
The beverage space is notoriously difficult. For every Liquid Death or Prime that breaks through, a hundred others die in convenience store coolers. Yerba mate has a dedicated following, but it's still a niche compared to the Red Bull and Celsius juggernauts. What SOLLOS has going for it is a name with tabloid magnetism and a generation of consumers who don't care whether their energy drink comes from a billionaire's kid — as long as it tastes good and fits the Instagram aesthetic.
🥃 Cole's Take: I'm not betting the ranch on celebrity-branded beverages, but I'm also not dismissing the power of a Trump launching a product in Florida. If this thing gets distribution and the formula doesn't taste like sunscreen, it could catch a wave. Watch the retail velocity in the first 90 days — that'll tell you everything.
Image via Golf.com
U.S. Open Sleepers at Shinnecock: Where Smart Money Goes Contrarian
The U.S. Open tees off this week at Shinnecock Hills, one of the purest tests in golf and a course that has a history of humbling favorites and crowning unlikely champions. J.J. Spaun took it last year, reminding everyone that major championships don't always go to the names at the top of the board. This year's sleeper picks from the GOLF.com staff include a mix of grinders, international talents, and players who've shown they can handle firm, fast conditions and brutal rough.
Shinnecock rewards precision, patience, and the ability to stay in the moment when everything's going sideways. It's a course that punishes ego and rewards the kind of disciplined, strategic play that doesn't make highlights but wins trophies. The sleeper candidates this week are guys who know how to manage a round, not just bomb drives and chase birdies.
🥃 Cole's Take: I love a good sleeper at a major — reminds me of buying into a company no one's talking about yet. If you're putting money down, look for guys with links experience and a history of grinding out pars when conditions get nasty. That's your edge.
📎 Golf.com
Image via Robb Report
The Floradora: A Summer Gin Cocktail That Doesn't Try Too Hard
The Floradora is one of those cocktails that's been around forever but never quite hit the hype cycle — which is exactly why it's worth your time. It's a gin-based drink with raspberry, lime, and ginger beer, built for warm weather and long evenings when you want something refreshing but not cloyingly sweet. Think of it as the cocktail equivalent of a well-tailored linen shirt: classic, unpretentious, and appropriate for just about any occasion that involves a porch or a patio.
What makes the Floradora work is balance. The raspberry adds a touch of fruit without turning it into a dessert drink. The ginger beer brings spice and effervescence. The gin stays in the driver's seat. It's a drink that rewards good ingredients — use a quality gin, fresh lime, and a ginger beer with actual bite — and punishes shortcuts.
🥃 Cole's Take: If you're still making gin and tonics in June, you're not wrong, but you're not trying. The Floradora is an easy upgrade that makes you look like you know what you're doing. Make one, sit outside, and remember why summer exists.
Mercury's Boost Upgrade: Midrange Power Where You Actually Need It
Mercury Marine just rolled out a software upgrade called Boost, designed to increase midrange performance on select outboard engines. It's not a hardware swap or a full repower — it's a flash to the engine's electronic control module that optimizes throttle response and torque delivery in the RPM range where most boaters actually spend their time. If you've ever felt like your boat was sluggish coming out of the hole or laboring through that midrange transition, this is aimed directly at you.
The beauty of Boost is simplicity. You're not tearing apart the engine or bolting on aftermarket parts that void your warranty. You take it to a certified Mercury dealer, they upload the new software, and you're back on the water with a noticeably improved power curve. Early reports suggest the difference is most pronounced in heavy boats, especially when loaded with gear, fuel, and passengers — exactly the conditions where midrange grunt matters most.
🥃 Cole's Take: I respect a company that improves the product you already own instead of just trying to sell you a new one. If you run Mercury and you've been thinking about more power, spend the money on Boost before you spend it on a repower. Smart upgrade, real-world benefit.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and don't forget to enjoy it. — Cole
— Cole Hargrove